We Live In a Connected World

If you find yourself despairing over daily reports of mass shootings, bombing attacks, mass migration, global warming and other disasters - take a deep breath and relax. The world is not as bad as it seems even though it is hard to believe. Obama last week reminded us, as he usually does in his calm and reassuring manner, that we have never lived in a world that's more peaceful, prosperous and connected than today. Scoff all you want, but hard facts and statistics prove him right.

Last Friday, I went to see a movie knowing it would be terrible as all summer movies are. But after a lovely dinner and a couple of creative cocktails at True Food in Northern Virginia's Mosaic District, it was still too hot to drive home, so my friend and I headed for a late night movie at Angelika Pop Up  (why does it have such a weird name?). Per my friend's  suggestion (I had none since one summer movie is as bad as another for me) the pick was Absolutely Fabulous, an absolutely hideous British movie - a depressing comedy about two aging women. I knew it was too much to hope that it might contain dry British humor of a bygone era. Today, movies are made to appeal to audiences worldwide and humor is notoriously hard to translate. Hence no subtlety. What goes for "funny" today is uncontrolled burlesque with an unending chain of slapstick gags in unrealistic settings, overblown confusion, preposterous plots and nightmarish situations. Joanna Lumley, who was unforgettable in a cameo performance in Me Before You, was too much of a good thing in Mandie Fletcher's AbFab.

Jennifer Saunders and Joanna Lumley in 'Absolutely Fabulous: The Movie.'

While this was to be expected from a movie comedy, it was more than a little disappointing to get a repeat experience the very next evening at Wolf Trap. The revival of Florian Gassmann's L'opera seria at the Barns turned the 18th century opera into a modern-day burlesque, i.e. something overblown and tiresome. Gassmann and his libretist Ranieri de' Calzabigi made a parody of Metastasian opera, with a score that pokes fun at the conventions of the genre: flowery passages, high drama, exaggerated emotions. But the Wolf Trap Opera's creative team led by Matthew Ozawa turned what was supposed to be light satire into a wild rollercoaster ride, which not everyone enjoyed.

The plot is relatively familiar (we've seen it in the much more famous Ariadne auf Naxos): a theater company is staging a fictional opera (a serious one) titled L'Oranzebe, featuring a conquering hero, a captured princess, and a rival princess. But it has a large enough number of characters to make a never-before-seen opera hard to follow. There are stereotype prima donnas, fighting for the producer's attention and their mothers rooting for their respective daughters. There is an equally puffed-up tenor and there is a composer, a librettist, a prompter and a manager - all with ridiculous names.  The insecure composer is Sospiro (Sigh); the light-headed librettist is Delirio (that one does not need a translation); the bankrupt impresario is Fallito (Failed); the leading tenor is Ritornello (a Baroque music feature); and the three sopranos are Stonatrilla (Out-of-Tune), Smorfiosa (Simpering), and Porporina (Purple-faced).

Composer, tenor and diva in Wolf Trap's production of L'opera seria

The first two acts are set in modern costume and deal with developments leading to the opening night. Act III is the opera within the opera, presented in an over-the-top Baroque style - dresses with wide hoops (making me realize how well those panniers hid oversized hips and unshapely legs; a man could have a nasty surprise on his wedding night), huge powdered wigs, plumed hats and fans as well as the oriental garb and a cardboard elephant on the "conquered" side.

The "performance" is interrupted by loud booing and heckling from the disgruntled audience – played by members of the production strategically planted around the auditorium. When a pandemonium erupts and the opera singers flee, the dancing master pacifies the audience with a balet perfromance. On the sidelines, performers and producers bicker and gossip until Sospiro barges in with the news that the manager is bankrupt and no one will get paid.

The Wolf Trap Opera is to be commended for the innovative programs, originality of productions and fresh voices offered every summer. In Saturday's performance all the singers were appealing although my personal favorites were Alasdair Kent as Ritornello, Amy Owens as Porporina and Christian Zaremba as Passagallo.  An especially remarkable novelty for me was the first Middle Eastern name I've ever seen in a local opera production: Mohammed Badawi portraying Young Indian Prince.

L'opera seria had all of the Wolf Trap company's signature traits, and it was mostly fun to watch. But in the end, the overblown parody became predictably tiresome. The humor would have been much more effective with fewer well placed gags than a multitude of forced ones. Gassmann's opera has been described as "gently satirical, but never cynical" and as having "a warmth that speaks to us." Ozawa took the opportunity to ridicule operatic drama to the extreme. His production reflects what many Americans (and others) today feel about opera - that it is too far removed from reality and silly. 

One could hope that people in the profession would feel differently. But I've heard today's sopranos say they don't understand Aida's decision to die with her lover in a tomb or Butterfly's to give up her child and commit suicide. The general attitude is: why don't they move on? Not to mention the ridicule heaped on the plot of Il trovatore, especially the mother throwing the wrong child in the fire. Small wonder the best interpretations of these masterpieces remain in the past when singers identified with their roles and believed in them. 

But as always, there is hope. The Middle East is soon to get its first opera written in Arabic and on Middle Eastern themes. Maroun Rahi, composer, conductor and founder of Opera Lebanon decided to offer the local audience something more original than Carmen or La boheme and he teamed up with librettist Antoine Maalouf to create an opera written specifically for the Arabic language. Rahi says it will be a turning point in the Arabic culture. 

John Owens for VOA, Antar and Abla

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=27K-jZIVhao

http://www.operalebanon.org/opera/antar-abla

The work, Antar and Abla, is based on an ancient Arabic poem about love, honor and treachery - all good opera material. Local performers are likely to identify with their roles better than with characters in a western opera. Rahi hopes the first of its kind opera will eventually reach major international stages. In this new connected world his wish will likely get fulfilled.

Croatia: Refugees Ante Portas

A Croatian friend from Las Vegas sends me an e-mail from our native Zagreb which she is visiting after several years of absence. She says she has shelved any plans for a possible retirement in the old country, and that even future visits are in question. Why? She finds the conversations too shallow, or "pouring from the hollow into the empty" as they say there, and people too grim-faced, xenophobic and generally mean-spirited, living beyond their means, pretending to be what they are not, and thinking they know everything - even if they have not stepped out of their backyard for the past quarter-century.

Of course she is exaggerating, but I know what she means. Over several past decades, I have made at least five or six - probably more - trips to Croatia. The conversations invariably revolved around local issues: prices and availability of goods and services, alleged incompetence of political leaders and local who-are-whos. Despite the popularity of American movies and TV shows, the distaste for the United States is widespread (it's the country that wants total control of the world, where danger lurks around every corner; goods are cheap and poor quality; high culture is non-existent, and the food is good enough only for the boat people). Washington is not worth a visit for these "intellectuals" in the country of "cultural traditions" dating back to King Tomislav. Only "refined" cities such as Paris, Rome, London or Vienna will do. As my Las Vegas friend notes, without ever visiting the United States, many of these people believe they know all they need to know about it, so the opportunity to learn first-hand from someone who actually lives there is passed up. During these many visits, I don't recall anyone asking me about my lifestyle, my career or my experience living in the United States. If I volunteer, the eyes glaze over and the subject is quickly changed.

Cafè in central Zagreb:  World News Not Discussed Here

Just recently, I attempted an e-mail discussion with an acquaintance in Zagreb about the averted train attack in Europe and the bravery of the Americans who subdued the heavily armed gunman. I thought surely that would be of interest to someone who lives on the continent and might travel on just such a train. The response was a total blank - the acquaintance had not heard about the incident. Neither had she heard of the Croatian worker who was kidnapped and beheaded by ISIS in Egypt. She does not read newspapers or watch TV news said this "educated" person with a published book or two behind her belt. Such news are of no use to her. She feels sorry for the poor Croatian guy, she said, but the information I gave her only upsets her and has no other purpose. I was speechless. Of course she has the right to block out the unwanted information and, yes, the news overall are mostly depressing. But can an intellectual, even a fiction writer as opposed to a journalist, live in a vacuum - in a personal bubble protected from the infections from the outside world? I guess so.

Today's news (September 17) is "dismal" for Croatia. Thousands of migrants poured in through the border with Serbia as they head for Western Europe. Unprepared for the crowds the size of a small Croatian town, the border authorities were overwhelmed and what they hoped would be an orderly passage turned into chaos. Even those willing to help the exhausted, desperate and angry people were taken aback. An estimated 14,000 migrants entered the country in just two days after being diverted from the Serbian border with Hungary, which is now sealed.

Refugees are not new to Croatia. The country hosted tens of thousands of people displaced by the 1990's ethnic conflict in the Balkans. But those refugees trickled in gradually, they were neighbors, some of them had relatives in Croatia and they spoke a language that can be understood. After the war, many returned to their homes and those who stayed were easily integrated.

Chaos on the Croatian Border with Serbia

The current waves comprise people from the Middle East and other remote foreign regions.  They don't plan to stay, but as a European Union member, Croatia will have to settle a certain number of the refugees that have reached Europe in the past few years. Many locals cringe at the idea of integrating people of such different ethnic and cultural backgrounds. 

During my school years in Zagreb, the handful of Middle-easterners and Africans in the town were young people from the so-called non-aligned countries, befriended by longtime Yugoslav leader Tito, and they came temporarily to study at the Zagreb University.  Only one of those students, a Kenyan,  became a permanent resident at the time.  But EU executives earlier this month said each member nation should accept 160,000 migrants. Even one third of that figure would create a huge impact on the Slavic country with few and not so diverse minorities.  Maybe that's a jolt that Croatia, Hungary and some other eastern European countries need to realize that they are part of an increasingly global world, despite barbed-wire fences they may put up.

The barbarity of the Balkan conflict stunned the world in the early 1990's. By the time observers recovered from their stupor, tens of thousands of people were massacred, tortured and displaced. The world is now equally stunned by (and therefore unprepared to accommodate or process) the number of people risking life and limb to escape the new places of conflict, popping up in the developing world. Why the surprise? Could it be because too many "intellectuals" block out distressing news and choose to live protected in their comfortable bubbles?

Why I Like Classics

Morocco is as spectacular in real life as it is in the movies and books, whether you visit the Mediterranean Coast, the Atlas Mountains, or the Sahara, or places in between.  It is nigh impossible to imagine that people in this gorgeous country where every house, door and window, every kaftan, bag and shoe is an object of art, and all of them in balance with nature,  could be anything but content.  Indeed, nowhere have I seen so many warm, hospitable, helpful and smiling people in such a short time as I did in Morocco this year.  So why is this seemingly tranquil country the fourth largest provider of foreign fighters for Islamic State in Syria?

The only hint that things may not be as serene as they seem is the ubiquitous presence of the police and troops - even in the small mountain-pass trading posts - and the strict ban on taking photos of the uniformed personnel.  

After my return from Morocco I picked up The Spider's House, a novel by Paul Bowles, set in the city of Fes during the 1954 nationalist uprising. Its central character is Amar, an illiterate Arab boy, a son of a healer and a devout Muslim.  He believes that everything happening to him is God's will which makes it possible to bear his father's merciless beating or receive a huge amount of money with equal passivity.  Amar also possesses strong intuition and can predict how people will act in certain circumstances.  He does not have qualms about using this gift to manipulate people and situations to his advantage. 

Amar's thoughts as he interacts with the French, Americans and local Muslims offer an insight into what many Moroccans must be feeling today. He thinks the American woman is a prostitute because she wears a sleeveless dress and looks a man in the eye while they talk. He hates the French, and the Nazarenes (Christians) in general, but despises the Muslim freedom fighters even more for violating Islamic traditions.  

A boy in southern Morocco

Photos of the Moroccan royal family are displayed in public places all over the country.  King Mohammed VI and his wife Salma wear western clothes and her long wavy hair is not covered.  One wonders if all Moroccans condone that.  Protests in Rabat in recent years indicate that some discontent may be simmering under the smooth surface. 

The expressions of anti-American sentiment in The Spider's House were a surprising revelation.  The book was published in 1955 and set in the time when Morocco was still under the French rule. But in a scene set at an Istiqlal (independence party) meeting, which Amar is forced to attend by a set of circumstances, a student says: "France would like to leave Morocco, but America insists on her staying, because of the bases. Without America there would be no France.... All we need is one good attack on each American base." The American classic written more than 60 years ago clearly has some answers to our questions about North Africa and the Middle East today.

Years ago I saw the British movie My Son the Fanatic, based on a short story by playwright Hanif Kureishi.  The 1997 film is one of the earliest works I came across that made me aware of the radicalization of Muslims in Europe. I almost said "nascent" radicalization, but after reading Bowles, I am beginning to suspect these developments may have much deeper roots than most of us ever knew.  

At the time, I saw Kureishi's movie as a fun depiction of a perpetual generation gap teenagers and their parents, one that reverses the real-life situation in which the parents are conservative and the children progressive into a fictional one in which the father is trying to be progressive while the son wants to return to the family's Pakistani roots.  In his search for his true identity the son becomes a devout Muslim, or as his father says, a religious fanatic. Like Amar in The Spider's House, he is put off by what he considers corrupted western ways: drinking, smoking, prostitution, and secularism. But unlike Amar who believes that Allah will punish the sinners, Kureishi's young Muslim believes it is his duty to eradicate the sins (and the sinners), using violence if necessary.  If I had taken the work more literally when I first saw it, perhaps the 2005 London bombings would have been less of a surprise.

One question most of us ask today is why Muslims kill each other. Despite the anti-American and anti-western rhetoric, the vast majority of victims of the terrorist attacks committed in the name of Islam are Muslims. Last week's bombing of two mosques in Yemen's capital were just the latest in the long series of horrifying examples.

Journalists report events and facts, pundits analyze them and offer interpretations. But it is the writers delving into people's minds that present their innermost thoughts and feelings and help us understand why people act as they do in certain situations. The thoughts may be fictional, but coming from a good writer, they get closer to the heart of the matter and much earlier than any newspaper report.

Take for example Tolstoy's Hadji Murad. The classic short novel is one of the best works I have read on the roots of the violence in Chechnya and Dagestan. Based on historic events and Tolstoy's own experience while serving in the Caucasus, Hadji Murad tells the story of an Avar rebel commander from the 19th century. Between 1811-1864 the peoples of Dagestan and Chechnya were fighting against the incorporation of their lands into the Russian Empire. A feud between Murad and rival leader Shamil led to a conspiracy to kill Murad. Alerted to the plan, Murad escapes, but his mother, wife and son are held hostage by Shamil.  

Interestingly, Murad's son admires Shamil, perhaps not knowing that he threatened to gauge his eyes out if his father does not return. Murad surrenders to the Russians and offers his experience to help defeat the rebels in exchange for arms and troops to rescue his family. The Russians admire the great warrior's mind and his physique, but also mistrust him. A Russian commander delays the decision about Murad, making the Avar realize he cannot count on help there.  So he flees the Russian fortress with the intent of gathering some loyal tribesmen for a desperate effort to save his family from Shamil's clutches. The Russians fear treachery and follow in hot pursuit, eventually killing Murad with the aid of many local tribesmen.

The Cossacks of Caucasus

Hadji Murad

                                              
Tolstoy's short novel brings home the point that political and other rivalries, as well as desire for revenge can quickly turn one tribe against another, and that a tribal leader may side with an enemy if his family is at stake.

Another Tolstoy story, The Cossacks, deals with the inability of a stranger to gain acceptance into an ethnic community in which he was not born.   Young Russian officer Olenin seeks relocation to a southern outpost where he hopes to find tranquility in a rural Cossack community.  He eats and drinks with them, wears their clothes, helps a young Cossack get a horse, and even wants to marry a Cossack girl.  Through Maryanka's attitude toward this outsider Tolstoy shows the impossibility of Olenin's dream. The young girl toys with the man of "white skin" and "fine hands", but considers him weak and pampered. Even if she mulls a union with him for a while, it all vanishes when her former admirer Luka, a village rogue and drunkard, gets severely wounded in a skirmish with the Chechens. She cruelly rejects Olenin and sends him on his way because all her thoughts are now on saving or mourning a Cossack life. Like Bowles, Tolstoy conveys that in the time of crisis, people of different cultures ultimately fail to connect.

Great writers are great thinkers and great observers.  They have given me the best answers to the questions about people's behavior, culture and history. They have helped me understand the remotest of strangers. Good classical works deal with universal truths and that's what makes them as meaningful today as at the time when they were created. And they make me worry about Morocco.  The attack on the museum in neighboring Tunisia is a loud wake-up call.

********
For my photos of Moroccan doors, please check this earlier post:

http://zlaticahoke.blogspot.com/2015/02/the-doors-of-morocco.html

After posting this blog, I learned that Moroccan authorities announced they had conducted raids in several cities, and detained 13 suspected members of an Islamic State-linked group.

http://www.voanews.com/content/morocco-claims-dismantling-of-is-linked-terror-cell/2693572.html

Is Arab Democracy Possible Without Islamists?

October 4, 2005

Until the September 11th terrorist attacks, a lack of political freedom in the Middle East generally provoked little international outcry. But in recent years, there has been an intense search for ways to unlock the rigid ruling systems of many Mideast countries, which may foster terrorism. 

Political systems in the Middle East range from benign monarchies and minor autocracies to military dictatorships and totalitarian states. Marcus Noland, a senior analyst at the Institute for International Economics here in Washington, says statistical data indicate that authoritarianism is especially persistent in Middle Eastern countries with majority Arab populations. He adds that interpretations of this particular finding are very controversial. 

Some argue that there’s something in the Arab culture that is inherently anti-democratic and there are some anthropologists who have argued this. But it also could be that it’s not Arab culture, per se. It’s that there is something in the specific political history and current status of these countries that is creating the statistical association between Arab ethnicity and lack of democracy,” says Mr. Noland. 

Colonialism, lack of modernization, social structures, government reliance on oil revenues and religion are other commonly cited reasons for the democratic deficit in the Arab world. Marius Deeb, Professor of Middle East Studies at The Johns Hopkins University, is one of many scholars who blame the region’s history of conflict for enabling Arab rulers to suppress democratic movements. 

“The very idea that there is an Arab-Israeli conflict, which is going on despite the fact there is a peace process from the 1970s onward, creates this sort of excuse to have military dictators and to have one-party systems operating, taking over power and remaining in power,” says Professor Deeb. 

But many observers say the political history of the Middle East is not much different from that of the rest of the world. North Korea, China, Burma and a number of other countries in Asia, as well as several African states, also suffer from a lack of democracy and show few signs of improvement. Many also point out that the former Soviet republics, including Russia, are sliding into authoritarianism, except for a few shaky pockets of political pluralism like Georgia, Ukraine and Moldova. 

Juan Cole, Professor of History at the University of Michigan, says emerging from authoritarianism can be slow and painful in any part of the world and that the Middle East is no exception. He says democratic governance is supported by relatively well off and educated societies and rarely those with low per capita incomes. 

“Most Arab countries do not have a thriving working and middle class that has the kind of income that it could mobilize resources for a greater share of power. A country like Egypt has a per-capita income of something on the order of $1,000 a year. And what that really means, since urban people make much more [money] than rural people, is that most Egyptians who live in the countryside, probably 40 percent or so, really are living on a few hundred dollars a year.” 

Professor Cole points out that even oil rich countries like Saudi Arabia have impoverished populations and that unemployment is on the rise throughout the Arab world. Syria, for example, a tightly controlled military regime, is among the least developed countries in the region. But he acknowledges that poverty and illiteracy do not always impede democracy, as evidenced by India. 

Marcus Noland of the Institute for International Economics says that unlike Indian leaders, Arab ruling elites have chosen not to modernize their social and political systems. “My statistical results are pointing toward an explanation that emphasizes basic issues having to do with [a lack of] modernization combined with elite preferences as being the basic drivers for the enduring authoritarianism of the region,” he says. 

But Anthony Cordesman, a senior Middle East analyst at Washington’s Center for Strategic and International Studies, disagrees. “You have in Saudi Arabia’s case, an extraordinarily conservative and traditional population, not a group of people seeking democracy and freedom, but often the leadership of the royal family, technocrats and educators who have pushed for reform faster than much of the people necessarily want to follow. [It is] almost the reverse of the traditional argument about authoritarianism and democracy,” says Mr. Cordesman. 

The escalation of global terrorism, aimed at Arab as well as Western targets, and increased pressure to democratize, have forced many authoritarian rulers to allow some political reform in recent years. But Islamist groups, some of them long suppressed or even banned like the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt, have turned out to be among the most eager to participate in the political process. Many in the West fear that democratization of the Middle East may replace current authoritarianism with rigid Islamist regimes. 

Professor Juan Cole agrees that democratizing the Muslim world would likely produce gains for Islamists. But the alternative, he says, is more autocracy and more violence. He cites the example of Algeria where an Islamist election victory in 1991 was annulled, plunging the country in a bloody civil war. 

Many analysts predict that Islamist parties that are now seen as traditionalist and reactionary are more likely to bring democracy to the Middle East than outside pressure. But ultimately, most say, democracy will come to each country when its people are ready for it and not a moment before.

This article was written for the Voice of America in 2005

The Quest for Honor

The concept of honor varies from one culture to another.  It has also changed over time.  Social scientists say understanding what honor means in other cultures is an essential part of effective global communication.

A social science experiment conducted by the University of Michigan a few years ago included directing a verbal insult at male students from the south and the north of the United States.  "We find huge differences in the way our southern and northern students respond to that," said Richard Nisbett, professor of social psychology at the University of Michigan.

What's An Insult?
"First, the attitude towards this on the part of the northern students is: 'What's your problem?' They don't get upset about it.  The southerners immediately look angry if you code their expressions.  It's not: 'What's your problem?' It's: 'You and I have got a relationship now.'"

And that relationship often includes retaliation on the part of the student who feels insulted.  The social consequences of this type of response are far-reaching. Statistics show that small-town murder rates among friends, lovers and acquaintances are three times higher in the South than in the New England and Midwestern states.  Nisbett attributed the violence to the South's unique concept of "honor" - most likely imported by swashbuckling English cavaliers in the 17th century.

Nisbett the concept was reinforced some 100 years later by immigrants from the Irish and Scottish borderlands, traditional livestock-herding communities. "Any culture where the care of animals is the basis of your livelihood has a tradition of macho men.  And the reason for that, we think, is because if I don't make it clear that I am a tough guy and you better stay away from anything that is mine -- my home, my honor, my animals -- you are a dead man," he said.

Honor In Mediterranean and Middle East Countries
Nisbett said similar notions of honor prevail in many Mediterranean and Middle Eastern countries.   Bertram Wyatt-Brown, author of the book "Southern Honor," agreed.  He said that the ancient codes of honor that prize martial valor, family loyalty and male dominance remain powerful in rural societies all over the world.

"Almost every society that has very few cities and has a rural background and economy and very few institutions that you can depend upon -- institutions of law in particular, of ordinary justice -- resorts to this family-based code in which the head of household is the giver of truth. All must obey his commands and he must obey the commands of the whole community."

Wyatt-Brown said people in these societies are expected to observe traditional conventions very strictly.  Family lineage is very important: "If you were in an honor society, the first question you'd be asked as a stranger is: to whom do you belong? And if you don't have a family connection, they are going to be very suspicious because (they would think): how can we judge who the stranger is?"

Wyatt-Brown said that in modern western cultures, especially in large cities, personal achievements are more important than family ties: "So you are a physician, or a clergyman, or a businessman even, and they don't ask you, 'To whom do you belong,' but 'What do you do for a living?'"

Still, Hyatt-Brown said westerners typically value personal integrity, honesty and other moral virtues more than a person's social status.  Insults, encroachments on personal property and other perceived injuries are, for the most part, dealt with in a court of law.

Honor Societies
In honor societies, by contrast, people are more likely to resort to personal vengeance, often, said Wyatt-Brown, in the form of bloody retribution.  Seeking legal help and or pursuing negotiations with one's adversary may be perceived as a sign of weakness and therefore a cause for shame, and a loss of social status.  The whole family, sometimes an entire society, is obliged to respond to reclaim the honor of the insulted member.

"There's always revenge and then revenge on top of the retribution and it goes on and on, as it does in Palestine and Israel," said Wyatt-Brown, adding that many Arabs are angry at the West because they believe it has exposed their political and military weaknesses.

Loss of territories to Israel and perceived attacks on Islamic culture also insult Arabs' honor.  So their hunger for vengeance is strong.  Social scientists say this feeling is likely to persist until Arabs can regain their dignity and a sense of control over their lives.  The West can help by learning to understand and, more importantly, to show respect for these powerful and enduring notions of honor.

Christians are Leaving the Middle East

January 2006

The Cradle of Christianity Is Losing Its Christians

There are between 12- and 15-million Christians in the Middle East, almost half of them living in Egypt. The exact figures are hard to establish because of the lack of official records and continued migration. Lebanon, with slightly more than one-million Christians, has the highest ratio: about 30 percent of its population is Christian. Most other Middle Eastern countries are less then 10 percent Christian.

Church of Nativity, Bethlehem

Demographers say the Christian population has declined noticeably in most Middle Eastern countries since the beginning of the 20th century. Fred Strickert, professor of religion at Wartburg College in Iowa, says Christians became a minority in the Middle East after the spread of Islam during the 7th Century, but they continued to play an important role, until the decline of the Ottoman Empire.
 
"In 1908, there was an internal revolution. They called it the Young Turks' revolt. A new group of people came into power and many of them were very biased against the Christians," says Strickert. "They were attempting to draft them into the army and things like that. There was a mass migration from all places in the Middle East - Lebanon, Syria, and Jerusalem - and, by then, many of the Christians, partly because of Christian missionaries, had benefited from schools and hospitals, and sought better conditions in the West for economics. And so, there was a large migration at the very beginning of the 20th Century."
 
Strickert says emigration of Christians continued in the second half of the 20th century, due to armed conflicts, economic hardship or persecution. He says many Christians emigrated to the west, because it has been relatively easy for them. Most of them are educated, and, therefore, employable, and they have enjoyed support from Christians in the west. Low birth rates are another important cause of the Christian population decline in the region, says Strickert. For example, he says, Lebanon was more than half Christian in the 1920's and 1930's. Today, Christians account for less than one third of its population.
 
"In 1930, census was taken in Lebanon, and on the basis of that census, the government was arranged to have a certain percent of Christians, Sunni Muslims, Shi'ite Muslims, etc. and Christians had a significant number there. The Shi'ite Muslims, who were basically in the southern part of Lebanon, grew at a very rapid rate, simply because they had very high birth rate, while the Christians were dropping slowly."

Strickert says there also appears to be a decline in Christian populations in
Iraq and territories under Palestinian control.  A 2003 Israeli study shows that about 12.000 Christians fled historically Christian Palestinian towns, such as Bethlehem, Beit Sahour and Beit Jala, since the Palestinian uprising began in 2000.  Some Palestinians blame the Israeli government's security measures, such as building a security barrier between parts of Jerusalem and the West Bank.
 
"Bethlehem is especially hard hit by the wall," says Philip Farah, a Washington area Palestinian-American who left the region in 1975. "The wall cuts through a lot of people's properties. And if the property is cut by the separation wall, then they stand to lose the part of the property that is on the other side." Philip Farah says the security barrier, as well as Israeli checkpoints make it very hard for Christians from the West Bank and Gaza to maintain business, family and social ties with Christians in Israel. He says many who were able to leave, have done so.
 
Israelis say the number of Christians in Israel has not declined. There has actually been a slight increase, bringing the total number of Christians close to 120-thousand. "In Israel they [the Christians] have a small percentage of increase, that is 1.4 pecent of increase per year, which is about the same as that of the Jews in Israel," says Daphne Tsimhoni, a professor of modern Middle East History at Technion, Israel's Institute of Technology.
 
Leon Hadar, a Middle East analyst and author of the book, Sandstorm: Policy Failure in the Middle East, says attitudes toward Christians in Israel may be changing. "There is an interesting development, in which some of the Russian immigrants who came to Israel, probably around 300-thousand to half-a-million are not Jewish, says Mr. Hadar. "They are Christians. And it is quite possible that, if that community - we are not talking about an Arab-Christian community, but an Israeli Hebrew-speaking community - becomes integrated into Israeli society, Israel will become less and less of an exclusive Jewish state, and will become more open to integrating Christians into Israeli society."
 
Some observers say Christians in the Middle East have fared better under secular governments. Jonathan Adelman, professor of political science at the University of Denver, Colorado, says the rise of fundamentalist Islam is a concern.
 

Church Burning, Egypt 2013

"When they hear that Sharia law needs to be introduced, which basically means that Christians cannot testify in court as equals, that they are inferior - this is something that is very hard for any minority in the world, does not matter if they are Christians or not - very hard to understand or to accept in the 21st century, which is about tolerance and is about modernity. That's why we've had millions of them get up and flee to other parts of the world, where they don't feel threatened."
 
Jonathan Adelman and other analysts say the world should pay attention to the exodus of Christians from the Middle East, because many of those leaving belong to the educated middle class, and tend to be more open to the western democratic ideals. More importantly, adds Tsimhoni, the exodus of Christians represents a loss for Middle Eastern societies and they should make more effort to embrace them in their midst.